Paulina Jaramillo

Uses modeling techniques to generate a diverse array of near cost-optimal net-zero CO2 pathways for the United States’ energy system. Findings demonstrate that diverse pathways for deep decarbonization exist at comparable system-level costs, providing insights into the portfolio of technologies that enable a near cost-optimal net-zero CO2 future.

Discusses the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and its insufficiency in meeting the United States' climate goals. Utilizes an energy system optimization model to explore additional policies, including carbon taxes and efficiency standards, aimed at achieving greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions. Findings show that while these policies align with the nation's climate goals outlined in the Paris Agreement, none achieve net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. The results suggest that meeting climate targets will require rapid deployment of zero-emission technologies across the energy system.

Explores policy spillovers, technological lock-in, and efficiency gains from regional pollution taxes in the U.S. energy and climate change context. Findings show that local air pollutant (LAP) and carbon dioxide (CO2) taxes lead to similar levels of decarbonization, with LAP taxes resulting in increased natural gas generation and reduced coal generation in the electric sector, while CO2 taxes lead to increased generation from wind and solar energy.

Summarizes a model-based analysis that identifies the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. energy sector under different scenarios and identifies near-optimal feasible pathways to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

Examines the transport sector’s role in climate change mitigation. Appraises the transport system’s interactions beyond the technology of vehicles and fuels to include the full lifecycle analysis of mitigation options, a review of enabling conditions, and metrics that can facilitate advancing transport decarbonisation goals. Assesses the future trajectories emerging from global, energy, and national scenarios and concludes with a discussion on enabling conditions for transformative change in the sector.

Discusses the impact of climate change on electricity grid planning in the Southeast U.S. in 2050, and highlights the potential threat of climate-induced impacts on the reliability and affordability of supplying electricity. Findings suggest that neglecting climate-induced impacts in planning increases social costs due to capacity issues, emphasizing the need to consider climate effects in planning decisions.

Describes efforts to apply best practices of policy-focused energy system modeling, ensure transparency, build a networked community, and work toward a common purpose: examining possible US energy system futures to inform energy and climate policy efforts.

Highlights the importance of nuclear power plants in providing carbon-free electricity in the United States, and notes that many of these plants are facing the risk of early closure due to the availability of cheaper natural gas and increased low-cost renewables, which could lead to an increase in CO2 emissions even as states aim to comply with EPA regulations on greenhouse gas emissions. Demonstrates that preventing nuclear plant retirements is a cost-effective carbon avoidance strategy for the U.S. energy system.

Discusses the impact of recent regulations targeting air emissions and renewable energy deployment on power plant operations. Notes that Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations may lead to changes in coal-fired plants, while state Renewable Portfolio Standards drive renewable energy deployment. Analyzes PJM system operations under various scenarios, and finds that coal plant retirements without transmission upgrades could cause congestion and higher prices. Suggests that increased wind power, with geographic diversity, may mitigate these effects.